There are a lot of plug-in hybrid cars being released, from mainstream automotive manufacturers, but the fundamentals are all against them. Those offering the most desirable pure electric cars – those with the longest range and three times the resale value – have long waiting lists, but they will catch up. There is no long wait for a plug-in hybrid, and GM abandoned its Volt plug-in hybrid version.

In the case of plug-ins, users report two types of range anxiety: a small battery and a small gas tank. The U.K. withdrew PHEV support because people never plugged them in. Consequently, although plug-in hybrid sales have been rising, their market share has been dropping since 2013 (IDTechEx and BNEF).

Dr. Peter Harrop and the IDTechEx team created “Electric Vehicles 2020-2030” with EV forecasts in 100 categories. He said, “Traditional automotive companies wish to keep the internal combustion engine going for a bit longer. Many have revealed how far they are behind Tesla in pure electric by bringing out what are essentially copies of Tesla powertrains from six years ago but not all. Hyundai Kia, for example, has one-year waiting lists for its excellent pure-electric cars. They will clear that delay, releasing pent-up demand. Others will rapidly copy that success.”

Harrop concluded, “There is absolutely nothing to reverse dropping market share for plug-in hybrids leading to decline in sales numbers. Indeed, with new inputs, we have just revised our forecasts down to show plug-in car sales at zero in 2030. Technologically they are becalmed while pure-electric is evolving fast – from camper mode to solar versions that never plug in.”

For more information, visit www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV.